Nuke ban treaty still out of reach as Japan marks atomic bombings
By Jadenne Radoc Cabahug
Even as Japan marks the 78th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki this week, the only country to experience the devastating effects of nuclear weapons in a conflict remains opposed to joining a treaty that aims to comprehensively prohibit and ultimately eliminate the world’s most destructive weapons.
Japan’s absence as a signatory to the United Nations’ Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) comes despite more than 90 nations having signed on to the pact, which prohibits states from developing, threatening to use or hosting other states' nuclear weapons on their territory.
Japan, which is positioned under the so-called nuclear umbrella of its top ally, the United States, has refrained from joining the treaty, citing its own “tough security environment.” Tokyo relies on American nuclear weapons to deter threats within the region, including China and North Korea’s own increasingly potent arsenals.
Instead, Tokyo has undertaken what it calls “realistic and practical” efforts to bolster the existing nonproliferation regime via Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Hiroshima Action Plan, which focuses on boosting transparency around nuclear capabilities, decreasing stockpiles, securing nonproliferation, promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy and continuing not to use atomic weapons.
In a speech marking the anniversary of the Hiroshima bombing on Sunday, Kishida did not mention the TPNW, but said Japan would “press on tirelessly with its efforts to bring about a world without nuclear weapons,” noting that a “widening division within the international community over approaches to nuclear disarmament, the nuclear threat made by Russia and other concerns now make that road all the more difficult.”
Still, Kishida told a news conference later in the day that it is Japan's responsibility as the only country to be attacked with nuclear weapons to bridge the gap between nuclear-armed and nonnuclear nations.
Japan’s absence as a signatory to the United Nations’ Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) comes despite more than 90 nations having signed on to the pact, which prohibits states from developing, threatening to use or hosting other states' nuclear weapons on their territory.
Japan, which is positioned under the so-called nuclear umbrella of its top ally, the United States, has refrained from joining the treaty, citing its own “tough security environment.” Tokyo relies on American nuclear weapons to deter threats within the region, including China and North Korea’s own increasingly potent arsenals.
Instead, Tokyo has undertaken what it calls “realistic and practical” efforts to bolster the existing nonproliferation regime via Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Hiroshima Action Plan, which focuses on boosting transparency around nuclear capabilities, decreasing stockpiles, securing nonproliferation, promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy and continuing not to use atomic weapons.
In a speech marking the anniversary of the Hiroshima bombing on Sunday, Kishida did not mention the TPNW, but said Japan would “press on tirelessly with its efforts to bring about a world without nuclear weapons,” noting that a “widening division within the international community over approaches to nuclear disarmament, the nuclear threat made by Russia and other concerns now make that road all the more difficult.”
Still, Kishida told a news conference later in the day that it is Japan's responsibility as the only country to be attacked with nuclear weapons to bridge the gap between nuclear-armed and nonnuclear nations.
While nuclear weapon states can join the TPNW, they must agree to destroy their arsenals or hosted weapons within a specific time period — a fact that has prevented the world’s nine declared nuclear powers from signing the pact.
The U.S. has taken a particularly strong stance against the treaty, arguing that joining the pact would be ineffective at helping create a nuke-free world.
“Simply put, it will do nothing to help us achieve those goals,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said of the treaty in 2021. “Seeking to ban nuclear weapons through a treaty that does not include any of the countries that actually possess nuclear weapons is not likely to produce any results.”
The U.S. has taken a particularly strong stance against the treaty, arguing that joining the pact would be ineffective at helping create a nuke-free world.
“Simply put, it will do nothing to help us achieve those goals,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said of the treaty in 2021. “Seeking to ban nuclear weapons through a treaty that does not include any of the countries that actually possess nuclear weapons is not likely to produce any results.”
Japan and a nuke-free world
However, disarmament proponents say that there is a growing global belief that countries must relinquish their nuclear arsenals for the sake of peace.
“Most of the countries in the world, at least almost half, have now said: ‘We want to prohibit the use and possession of nuclear weapons,’” Richard Tanter, a former president of the Australian board of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), said in reference to a 2017 vote by 122 U.N. members in favor of the the TPNW’s final draft.
Atomic bomb survivors, known as hibakusha, have told Kishida they want Japan to join the U.N. nuclear ban treaty — a request reiterated Sunday by representatives from survivor groups. Hibakusha groups have been calling on Japan to at least take part as an observer in a meeting of state parties to the TPNW in November.
“Survivors of nuclear weapons are the real experts on nuclear weapons. Governments must listen to these experts to inform their nuclear policy,” said Alicia Sanders-Zakre, a policy and research coordinator with ICAN, which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017 for its “ground-breaking efforts” in promoting the TPNW.
“Most of the countries in the world, at least almost half, have now said: ‘We want to prohibit the use and possession of nuclear weapons,’” Richard Tanter, a former president of the Australian board of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), said in reference to a 2017 vote by 122 U.N. members in favor of the the TPNW’s final draft.
Atomic bomb survivors, known as hibakusha, have told Kishida they want Japan to join the U.N. nuclear ban treaty — a request reiterated Sunday by representatives from survivor groups. Hibakusha groups have been calling on Japan to at least take part as an observer in a meeting of state parties to the TPNW in November.
“Survivors of nuclear weapons are the real experts on nuclear weapons. Governments must listen to these experts to inform their nuclear policy,” said Alicia Sanders-Zakre, a policy and research coordinator with ICAN, which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017 for its “ground-breaking efforts” in promoting the TPNW.
But the hibakusha have not been the only ones urging Japan to join or observe the TPNW process — even top officials in the ruling bloc have said the country should do so.
Natsuo Yamaguchi, head of Komeito, the ruling coalition’s junior partner, has stressed the symbolism of such a move, noting that Kishida has not dismissed the TPNW outright, but rather views it as a “goal.” Participating as an observer nation would be a valuable step toward that endgame, he said.
In May, Kishida called for a world free of nuclear weapons at the Group of Seven leaders summit in Hiroshima, where they endorsed a document based on his Hiroshima Action Plan, which in turn built on the framework of another pact, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The NPT’s main goal is to limit the spread of nuclear weapons rather than achieve the full surrender of them. Japan and five nuclear powers have signed the treaty, including the U.S., China and Russia. Most nuclear weapons states favor the NPT over the TPNW, but experts say that there are knock-on effects to this approach, namely a nuclear arms race.
“It is a very dangerous time right now globally with respect to nuclear weapons,” said Scott Sagan, a Stanford University professor and member of the Hiroshima Round Table, a nuclear disarmament and arms control grouping of academics. “I think it's understandable that even with all the desire to move toward a world without nuclear weapons, Japan and many other countries have decided to stick with the Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
Natsuo Yamaguchi, head of Komeito, the ruling coalition’s junior partner, has stressed the symbolism of such a move, noting that Kishida has not dismissed the TPNW outright, but rather views it as a “goal.” Participating as an observer nation would be a valuable step toward that endgame, he said.
In May, Kishida called for a world free of nuclear weapons at the Group of Seven leaders summit in Hiroshima, where they endorsed a document based on his Hiroshima Action Plan, which in turn built on the framework of another pact, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The NPT’s main goal is to limit the spread of nuclear weapons rather than achieve the full surrender of them. Japan and five nuclear powers have signed the treaty, including the U.S., China and Russia. Most nuclear weapons states favor the NPT over the TPNW, but experts say that there are knock-on effects to this approach, namely a nuclear arms race.
“It is a very dangerous time right now globally with respect to nuclear weapons,” said Scott Sagan, a Stanford University professor and member of the Hiroshima Round Table, a nuclear disarmament and arms control grouping of academics. “I think it's understandable that even with all the desire to move toward a world without nuclear weapons, Japan and many other countries have decided to stick with the Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
Nuclear threats around the world
For Japan, nuclear-armed North Korea remains a serious threat, with Pyongyang firing more missiles than ever over the last two years, effectively putting an end to any chances of a return to stalled denuclearization talks.
But Japan is also worried about another neighbor — China, which is undergoing a major shift in nuclear weapons policy as Beijing looks to build up its stockpile to 1,500 bombs by 2035, according to a U.S. estimate.
Russia has also unnerved Japan and the world’s nuclear powers with its threats to use the weapons against Ukraine, including one by Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who pointed to the 1945 U.S. nuclear attacks on Japan as a potential justification.
“Putin has upped the ante, and in September he said that there was a precedent for using nuclear weapons to end the war, citing the dropping of the bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, implying quite directly that the Russians are contemplating using nuclear weapons against Ukraine to try to end the war,” Sagan noted.
But Japan is also worried about another neighbor — China, which is undergoing a major shift in nuclear weapons policy as Beijing looks to build up its stockpile to 1,500 bombs by 2035, according to a U.S. estimate.
Russia has also unnerved Japan and the world’s nuclear powers with its threats to use the weapons against Ukraine, including one by Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who pointed to the 1945 U.S. nuclear attacks on Japan as a potential justification.
“Putin has upped the ante, and in September he said that there was a precedent for using nuclear weapons to end the war, citing the dropping of the bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, implying quite directly that the Russians are contemplating using nuclear weapons against Ukraine to try to end the war,” Sagan noted.
Tanter said this year’s Hiroshima and Nagasaki anniversaries are particularly important considering the context in which they are being marked. But he added that the challenge of nuclear weapons is not just a matter for Japan, since “radiation doesn't stop” at borders.
Amid the spiraling risks, some say now is the time for countries to re-evaluate their trajectories on the issue of nuclear weapons and deterrence.
In the annual Peace Declaration delivered at the Hiroshima ceremony, Mayor Kazumi Matsui called on world leaders to accept that global instability has proven that nuclear deterrence is a “folly.”
"Leaders around the world must confront the reality that nuclear threats now being voiced by certain policymakers reveal the folly of nuclear deterrence theory," he said. "They must immediately take concrete steps to lead us from the dangerous present toward our ideal world."
Sagan put this view even more clearly.
“As long as nuclear weapons exist, we could see another Hiroshima or Nagasaki,” he said. “Nuclear weapon deterrence is not infallible.”
Amid the spiraling risks, some say now is the time for countries to re-evaluate their trajectories on the issue of nuclear weapons and deterrence.
In the annual Peace Declaration delivered at the Hiroshima ceremony, Mayor Kazumi Matsui called on world leaders to accept that global instability has proven that nuclear deterrence is a “folly.”
"Leaders around the world must confront the reality that nuclear threats now being voiced by certain policymakers reveal the folly of nuclear deterrence theory," he said. "They must immediately take concrete steps to lead us from the dangerous present toward our ideal world."
Sagan put this view even more clearly.
“As long as nuclear weapons exist, we could see another Hiroshima or Nagasaki,” he said. “Nuclear weapon deterrence is not infallible.”