IHME study reports global COVID-19 actual deaths are double previous numbers
May 21, 2021
Actual COVID-19 deaths are double the reported deaths, according to a new study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the UW.
Using data from 59 countries, the IHME reports approximately 6.9 million people have died from COVID-19. This figure is double the death total reported by the World Health Organization.
This study’s objectives were to analyze disease transmission and emphasize public health disparities between developed and developing nations to better prepare for the future.
The disparity between reported COVID-19 deaths and actual COVID-19 deaths varies by country, according to global health professor Dr. Ali Mokdad.
“In the U[nited] S[tates] it's about 60% more than what has been reported,” Mokdad said.
Dr. Christopher Murray, the IHME’s director, said the testing and underreporting of deaths are directly correlated, especially in countries in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia regions.
The United States has the most COVID-19 deaths of any country in the world, with 574,043 reported cases and 905,289 projected deaths, according to the IHME. COVID-19 has been the global leading cause of death in 2021.
The countries with the largest numbers of COVID-19 deaths after the United States are India, Mexico, Brazil, and Russian, according to the associated press release.
The IHME team used their experience from the Global Burden of Disease report to create this analysis. This UW study is the first to attempt to survey the global impact of COVID-19 deaths.
The estimated COVID-19 death total was determined by comparing the number of pre-pandemic anticipated deaths to the number of deaths during the pandemic — both data sets including all causes of deaths — to determine what is known as “excess mortality.”
Mokdad said excess mortality refers to total deaths by all causes in crises like natural or human-made disasters.
There were several factors that the IHME kept in consideration while conducting this study to explain why many COVID-19 cases were unreported, Mokdad said. These include a lack of accessibility to COVID-19 testing, patients delaying or avoiding medical care, and an increase in anxiety and depression, leading to substance abuse.
Using data from 59 countries, the IHME reports approximately 6.9 million people have died from COVID-19. This figure is double the death total reported by the World Health Organization.
This study’s objectives were to analyze disease transmission and emphasize public health disparities between developed and developing nations to better prepare for the future.
The disparity between reported COVID-19 deaths and actual COVID-19 deaths varies by country, according to global health professor Dr. Ali Mokdad.
“In the U[nited] S[tates] it's about 60% more than what has been reported,” Mokdad said.
Dr. Christopher Murray, the IHME’s director, said the testing and underreporting of deaths are directly correlated, especially in countries in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia regions.
The United States has the most COVID-19 deaths of any country in the world, with 574,043 reported cases and 905,289 projected deaths, according to the IHME. COVID-19 has been the global leading cause of death in 2021.
The countries with the largest numbers of COVID-19 deaths after the United States are India, Mexico, Brazil, and Russian, according to the associated press release.
The IHME team used their experience from the Global Burden of Disease report to create this analysis. This UW study is the first to attempt to survey the global impact of COVID-19 deaths.
The estimated COVID-19 death total was determined by comparing the number of pre-pandemic anticipated deaths to the number of deaths during the pandemic — both data sets including all causes of deaths — to determine what is known as “excess mortality.”
Mokdad said excess mortality refers to total deaths by all causes in crises like natural or human-made disasters.
There were several factors that the IHME kept in consideration while conducting this study to explain why many COVID-19 cases were unreported, Mokdad said. These include a lack of accessibility to COVID-19 testing, patients delaying or avoiding medical care, and an increase in anxiety and depression, leading to substance abuse.
“Testing has been limited and continues to be in many settings,” Ruanne Barnabas, associate professor of global health, wrote in an email.
In developed countries like the United States, early COVID-19 deaths were not included in the total reported deaths because they were not tested, according to Mokdad. In developing countries, COVID-19 deaths were not reported if they did not occur in hospitals or were unconfirmed cases.
Another reason why many COVID-19 deaths went unreported is due to downplaying the virus in many parts of the world.
“Pressure to make the situation seem better than it is may suppress numbers — or perhaps uncertainty results in undercounting,” Barnabas said.
The IHME also took into consideration other factors that could impact the findings of the study. These three factors are reduced deaths in road injuries, respiratory diseases like influenza or measles, and chronic conditions.
The IHME estimated that 24% of the entire world population has been infected by COVID-19 as of May 10.
The expected death total between now and September 2021 is projected to increase by 2 million. Murray said at least half of these deaths will be from India alone.
“[The] main concern here is many places underplayed COVID-19 and they said it's not an issue or it's non-existent,” Mokdad said. “But in reality, COVID-19 disrupted a lot of our health system, society, and our economy.”
The undercount of COVID-19 deaths shows public health inequity within and across nations.
“This has been a devastating pandemic, but I hope we don't lose our humanity through this,” Mokdad said. “I hope that we work together … otherwise these disaster disparities will increase in our own country, between countries, and between the rich and the poor.”
In developed countries like the United States, early COVID-19 deaths were not included in the total reported deaths because they were not tested, according to Mokdad. In developing countries, COVID-19 deaths were not reported if they did not occur in hospitals or were unconfirmed cases.
Another reason why many COVID-19 deaths went unreported is due to downplaying the virus in many parts of the world.
“Pressure to make the situation seem better than it is may suppress numbers — or perhaps uncertainty results in undercounting,” Barnabas said.
The IHME also took into consideration other factors that could impact the findings of the study. These three factors are reduced deaths in road injuries, respiratory diseases like influenza or measles, and chronic conditions.
The IHME estimated that 24% of the entire world population has been infected by COVID-19 as of May 10.
The expected death total between now and September 2021 is projected to increase by 2 million. Murray said at least half of these deaths will be from India alone.
“[The] main concern here is many places underplayed COVID-19 and they said it's not an issue or it's non-existent,” Mokdad said. “But in reality, COVID-19 disrupted a lot of our health system, society, and our economy.”
The undercount of COVID-19 deaths shows public health inequity within and across nations.
“This has been a devastating pandemic, but I hope we don't lose our humanity through this,” Mokdad said. “I hope that we work together … otherwise these disaster disparities will increase in our own country, between countries, and between the rich and the poor.”